2 May 2025

Estimating LHRR Race Day Temperature

by Jacob Dichter

May 2, 2025

🎯 Goal: Estimate the probability distribution of temperatures on a specific calendar day (June 9th) in a specific town (Litchfield, CT) at a specific time (1:00pm).


  1. Collect Historical Weather Data You’ll need historical temperature data for the same calendar day over many years.

Options:

NOAA/NCEI Climate Data (link)

Meteostat API (free, Python-friendly)

Visual Crossing or Weather API (easy to use, but sometimes have usage limits)

Key data to collect:

Date

Temperature at race time (or daily high/low if hourly not available)

Optional: humidity, wind, etc.

  1. Clean and Prepare Data Extract temperatures from the chosen date (and optionally ± a few days) for each year.

Handle missing values.

Normalize time zones and units (Fahrenheit vs Celsius).

tags: