Estimating LHRR Race Day Temperature
by Jacob Dichter
May 2, 2025
🎯 Goal: Estimate the probability distribution of temperatures on a specific calendar day (June 9th) in a specific town (Litchfield, CT) at a specific time (1:00pm).
- Collect Historical Weather Data You’ll need historical temperature data for the same calendar day over many years.
Options:
NOAA/NCEI Climate Data (link)
Meteostat API (free, Python-friendly)
Visual Crossing or Weather API (easy to use, but sometimes have usage limits)
Key data to collect:
Date
Temperature at race time (or daily high/low if hourly not available)
Optional: humidity, wind, etc.
- Clean and Prepare Data Extract temperatures from the chosen date (and optionally ± a few days) for each year.
Handle missing values.
Normalize time zones and units (Fahrenheit vs Celsius).
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